India’s economic upswing will probably stay strong over the medium term but we suspect that Q2 GDP, published on Tuesday, will be little changed in y/y terms compared to January-March. Household expenditure and business spending are well-placed to take the lead as the boost fades from government spending, exports, and inventory re-building. But the changeover is likely to bring choppy data for a while. We continue to forecast that GDP in FY10-11 (April-March) will climb 9.0-9.5%, a view which is above the consensus forecast.