Thailand’s Q2 GDP data are released on Monday and the figures should confirm that the hit to the economy from the April-May troubles in Bangkok was not severe. We have always expected that this would be the case. Thailand’s export growth will slow from now on but a slump is unlikely, while domestic demand is set to stay healthy. The upshot is that the Bank of Thailand will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.75% on Wednesday. The baht should climb further by end-2010 as well and we also remain bullish on Bangkok stocks.