Public appearances in recent days have confirmed that Kim Jong-eun, the youngest son of Kim Jong-iI, has become North Korea’s new leader-in-waiting. It is good news for the region that a leadership transition is underway but there are lots of risks which would blow the succession off course. The bad news is that the military still appears to be the North’s most powerful institution. This means any attempts to implement new free market reforms will be smothered and that international sanctions over the nuclear programme, and other provocative acts, will probably be tightened over time.