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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Indonesia's upswing set to stay in good shape

Q4 GDP data for Indonesia, published today, were stronger than expected. The upswing will almost certainly remain impressive, with domestic demand leading the way. Government bonds will continue to struggle for a while given that annual inflation will likely accelerate further while central bank (BI) policy rate hikes have only just started. Nevertheless, we still suspect that 10-year yields will move lower later this year; our forecast is to 8.5% by end-2011, and compares to 8.7% now.

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