The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly held its cash rate at 4.5% today. Nonetheless, the RBA did state that rate hikes are likely if the economy develops in line with its main-case projections. We still expect the cash rate to be lifted in Q4, probably in November. Moreover, the rise to come will be the start of a series of hikes. We also still anticipate that the Aussie dollar will hit parity against the US dollar by the end of 2010 and will then stay stronger than now for most of next year.