Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

Emerging Asia Economics Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune?

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Articles
How would a hard landing in China affect Australia?Are Australian banks vulnerable to a global financial crisis?How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up?Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs?Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble?Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune?Should we be worried about sovereign debt in Asia?Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap?Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen?Will emerging markets outperform again?
Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the worldHow big a threat is New Zealand’s negative savings rate?Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive?New Zealand facing a long hard slogVietnam is back on track and set for strong growthTwo cheers for the DPJA new angle on Chinese growthIndia set to come back stronglyKorean recovery to follow the West, not Asia
Can China grow by 8% this year?Whatever happened to Asian decoupling?Surging bank loans not enough to save ChinaThe anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930sCould China end up making things worse in 2009?Indian GDP growth set to halve as credit crunch bitesIs China running out of steam after 30 years of reform?China’s fiscal package may not be quite what it seemsIs trouble lurking within Japan’s financial system?Bank of Korea to cut rates to a historic low of 1.5%
Japan heading for deflation againWhat’s really happening to Japanese wages?Markets are wrong about the renminbiWill the BRICs win the inflation battle?Will China still look as strong after the Olympics?Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recessionNext rate move in Australia will be a cutWill China's fuel subsidies be the next to go?How can China boost domestic demand?How will Singapore fare in a US recession?
Can Asia sustain its growth momentum?Has Asia really escaped the subprime crisis?What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China's economy?What next for the renminbi?Has Indonesia turned a corner?How will emerging Asia fare as the West slows?Could Vietnam eventually eclipse Thailand?What should we expect from the US-China dialogue?How worried should we be about Chinese stock markets?Japanese rates on hold until August, but risks still on the upside
Is the leading indicator a reliable signal of recession in Japan?The outlook for IndiaWhat have we learned from China's National People's Congress?Outlook for Thai economy continues to deteriorateHow much should we worry about China?Markets are complacent about upside risks to Japanese ratesWages pick-up to drive Japan's inflation and interest rates higherThailand needs lower interest rates, not FX controlsWhat to expect from Paulson's visit to BeijingBank of Japan makes the case for the next rate hike
Tankan supports case for another hike in Japanese interest ratesJapan after KoizumiIs the Japanese consumer flagging?What does the inflation outlook imply for Japanese rates?Tankan survey paves the way for rise in Japanese interest ratesDisappointing Chinese demand will further weaken commoditiesThe economics implications of the Beijing OlympicsIs inflation back from the dead?Commodity prices: current highs are not sustainableWhat to expect from Hu Jintao’s visit to the US
Commodity prices: beware the hypeIs China heading for a “hard landing”?How much should we worry about US protectionism?Domestic demand set to drive Japan's growthChina steps up pace of currency appreciationIndia's growth as good as it gets until further reforms passedGlobal asset prices at risk from higher Japanese ratesChina’s PMI surveys emphasise the downside risksAre US Bonds Over-valued?China's GDP not as strong as it looks
Chinese equities to play catch up in 2006The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue?How can India match China’s growth rate?What have we learned about China’s new currency regime?Korea – recovery on the way, but slowlyIs the Chinese property boom about to burst?Japan to escape deflation this yearWhat are Japan’s real objectives for the yen?A fresh look at the impact of higher oil prices on Asia