The acceleration of the rice purchase scheme by the Thai government and setting of minimum export prices by the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) have led many analysts to argue that the price of benchmark Thai rice, which is currently 10% below its 2011 peak at $580 per tonne, will not fall any further. However, we expect prices to be another 20% lower by the end of 2012, at around $475 per tonne. There are four main reasons for our relatively bearish view.