Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith that a disorderly Greek default can be avoided. But all of these supports are fragile and we expect sentiment to turn negative again during the course of the year, causing large falls in the prices of crude oil, industrial metals and many agriculturals. The biggest downside risk is the prospect that the euro will break apart. In this scenario, the only clear winner would be gold.