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China Watch

Monthly summary of our views on major talking points, along with previews of key upcoming data and events.

Sample - People's Bank signals major shift

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Articles
Is weak loan demand holding back the recovery?What difference would a wider RMB trading band make?What to watch for at the National People’s CongressAnother look at China's shifting labour marketHow should we think about the leadership transition?People's Bank signals major shiftChina on cusp of policy shiftRenminbi on the move againPremier Wen unshaken by market turmoilHow would China react to a US downgrade?
What do the leading indicators tell us about the outlook?How much further will China tighten?Thaw in US-China relations unlikely to lastCommodity prices drive abrupt rebalancing of China's tradeWhat should we make of the lower growth target?January loan surge tests new credit policyRenminbi set to outperform market expectations in 2011A look ahead to 2011People's Bank signals intent to "normalise" policyLooking ahead to the Five-Year Plan
The RMB as an international currency: don't believe the hypeReturn of the pegFirst thoughts a week into currency reformGliding to a soft landingInterest rates likely to remain on hold until Q4China set for a well-timed trade deficitFive key issues to watch at the National People’s CongressFears of monetary tightening hugely overdoneHow sustainable is China’s recovery?Is there a bubble in Chinese property?
Inflation returns to ChinaHow will China’s policymakers approach the year ahead?What is behind China’s new language on the renminbi?