Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022 Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022 Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey, our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022 Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021 Chart In Focus The pandemic may send Japan's labour force back to the future Japan’s labour force participation rate has risen by around 8 million, or 12%, since 2012, thanks largely to increased numbers of women and seniors entering the workforce. But that trend hasn’t... 14th December 2021 Capital View 2021's 10 big stories – according to Capital Economics The second year of the living with the pandemic has had its share of high and low points for economies and markets. These are the top 10 stories of the year, according to the Capital Economics team... 14th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021 Five Questions With... Vicky Redwood on labour shortages and productivity Labour shortages in advanced economies are creating headaches for businesses and policy makers. But there's an argument that they end up spurring productivity, says Senior Economic Adviser Vicky... 7th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021 Chart In Focus What would an Omicron lockdown mean for the UK economy? In providing a framework for thinking about how Omicron could impact the UK economy and policy-making, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales explains how GDP isn’t as far below pre-crisis levels as it was at... 30th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Current page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022
Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022
Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey, our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022
Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021
Chart In Focus The pandemic may send Japan's labour force back to the future Japan’s labour force participation rate has risen by around 8 million, or 12%, since 2012, thanks largely to increased numbers of women and seniors entering the workforce. But that trend hasn’t... 14th December 2021
Capital View 2021's 10 big stories – according to Capital Economics The second year of the living with the pandemic has had its share of high and low points for economies and markets. These are the top 10 stories of the year, according to the Capital Economics team... 14th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021
Five Questions With... Vicky Redwood on labour shortages and productivity Labour shortages in advanced economies are creating headaches for businesses and policy makers. But there's an argument that they end up spurring productivity, says Senior Economic Adviser Vicky... 7th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021
Chart In Focus What would an Omicron lockdown mean for the UK economy? In providing a framework for thinking about how Omicron could impact the UK economy and policy-making, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales explains how GDP isn’t as far below pre-crisis levels as it was at... 30th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021