November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous estimate of 2.0%. Even allowing for a rebound in oil extraction this quarter, we still expect equally moderate GDP growth. Construction activity should continue to ease and slower US economic growth is expected to dampen growth in manufacturing production. As such, the risks to our 1.5% GDP forecast for 2012 now lie to the downside.