After unexpectedly contracting in the second quarter, the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with GDP growth of 3.5% annualised, thanks largely to a big boost from external trade. But given the worsening global economic outlook, trade is unlikely to repeat a similar feat in the coming quarters. As such, overall economic growth is expected to slow again as it becomes principally dependent on domestic demand. The underlying trend of domestic demand appears to be pointing to growth of around 2% annualised, but we expect it to slow further next year.